Posts by David:
This morning former New York City Mayor Ed Koch passed away at 88. I wanted to take a second to remember Koch for his very personal style of politics, which helped him remain a public servant to his city even in the years following his mayoralty. Koch – who inspired the city’s current mayor by teling him to make sure he attends as many parades as possible, because that is the best part of the job – was never a hypocrite, always a pragmatist, and persistently outspoken. While working on Sen. Joe Lieberman’s 2006 campaign, I once overheard Koch say, “If you agree with me on eight of ten issues, vote for me. If you agree with me on nine of ten issues, volunteer for me. If you agree with me on ten of ten issues, see a shrink.” Koch was great mayor, and a great American.
My post listed a few potential personnel changes in the White House. I think there are also questions of policy changes now that the election is over and the President has a little “more flexibility,” as well as a legacy to craft.
Sorry for another list of a post here, but I want to run through who I think could/should be considered for key positions in President Obama’s second administration, and who might seek to succeed 44. I’m only taking a look at a few of the posts, and only some of the possibilities for those posts. Let me know who you buy, who you don’t, and anything else in the comments. Read the rest of this entry “
Don’t forget to Get Out and Vote Today!!
I decided I’m going to make some Election Night predictions now, so that I can take a few guesses before the excitement of the last week. I reserve the right to change any of these predictions, but I’ll clearly note any changes I make. My predictions are made in pretty much the same way Nate Silver does it over at “538,” with the primary difference being that he uses algorithmic analyses and I take guesses based on some polling I’ve seen online…
Arizona goes to Flake. However, I think not sending Carmona to the Senate is a big loss for the country and a big vote in favor of partisan gridlock in Congress.
Connecticut goes to Murphy, for whom I reluctantly am likely going to vote because I can’t pull the lever (…or send in the absentee ballot) for McMahon.
Florida goes to Nelson.
Indiana is going to be close. I’m going to give it to Joe Donnelly because I think Hoosiers have a tendency to put the right person in office (See: Bayh, Evan; Daniels, Mitch. Outliers: Ellsworth, Brad in 2010 and Lugar, Richard in the 2012 GOP primary.), and because Richard Mourdock is another Tea Party conservative who we don’t need in DC.
Maine is going to Angus King, who is going to take DC by storm. With Joe Lieberman and Olympia Snowe leaving the Senate, Mr. King is going to be an essential aisle-crosser in the next Congress.
Massachusetts goes to Warren. If I were a voter in MA, I would pull the lever for Brown. Warren is a solid liberal candidate, and she might be the next Liberal Lion(ess) of the Senate; however, Brown is the guy who will work across the aisle and get things done for his constituents and country. Moreover, his work on gun control is very impressive for a member of the Senate Republican Caucus.
Michigan and Minnesota are keeping two great Senators in Stabenow and Klobuchar, respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Amy Klobuchar take on some leadership roles in the next few years.
Montana will hang on to Jon Tester, and rightfully so.
Nevada seems to be trending toward keeping Heller, so I’m predicting he takes it for now; however, I’m really hoping Shelley Berkley pulls this one out. She’s a stellar candidate.
New York reelects Gillibrand by the cycle’s biggest margins, as she cruises into her first full term. She has to be among the 2016 VP chatter, if she doesn’t consider running for President herself.
North Dakota seems like it will go to Berg, despite Heidi Heitkamp being a really, really impressive candidate. Hopefully she has a ninth inning comeback.
Ohio keeps Brown, a much stronger candidate than Josh Mandel.
Virginia goes to Kaine, who I don’t think will be the next Mark Warner, but is a better pick than the very conservative George Allen.
Wisconsin has a not-so-great selection between a very conservative Tommy Thompson and a very liberal Tammy Baldwin. I think Baldwin is going to pull this one out, but I’m not going to be thrilled either way. I think the good people of Wisconsin should write in, or maybe lobby to bring back Russ Feingold or keep Herb Kohl.
I’m not going to go into House races, but I’m pulling for Patrick Murphy over Allen West to take back Ron Klein’s seat in FL-18 (formerly FL-22). I also should add that President Obama will be reelected by wide margins over Governor Romney. My guess is the disparity will be to the tune of seventy electoral votes.
Update 11/5: Maybe it’s preelection jitters, but I’m a little less confident in Obama’s margin of victory. I still think Nate Silver is right that there is an 80%+ chance Obama locks in a victory, and I’d guess a 50%+ chance the margin is very wide. That said, anything’s always possible.
Posted by David
On last week’s The Newsroom, Will McAvoy made the case that Congress should have provided the airwaves to the networks under a condition that evening news programs not have advertising in order to preserve their integrities. He makes the case that the need to cater to advertisers impacts the way the shows are put together for the negative. As I watch this week’s Fareed Zakaria GPS on TiVo, it seems that if McAvoy’s vision could be realized, it would look almost identical to GPS. Zakaria’s program might be the smartest on TV. It has huge intellectual strength and offers competing, intelligent perspectives in a way few other programs seem to. I’m yet to watch an episode of GPS and lack interest in the subject matter or feel as knowledgeable about it as those pontificating.
It’s a short point, but I thought I’d make it. Episode 4 of The Newsroom is in 11 minutes, so not much time to elaborate further… but, I’d appreciate any comments below.
If ever there were a case for capitalism, Havana, Cuba might be it. I had the good fortune to take part in a four-day mission to Cuba this past weekend, yet it took no more than a few minutes on the bus drive from the American terminal of Havana’s Jose Marti Airport toward Havana Vieja (Old Havana) to see the cataclysmic failure of Fidel, Che, Raul, and Camillo’s socialist experiment on the Pennsylvania-sized island ninety miles off Florida’s tip.
The first sign of failure is the beautifully decayed mid-twentieth century architecture. The Spanish-Caribbean fusion – multi-colored and crumbling – is fully apparent, but each day some building, or some part thereof, collapses. As is the justification for inefficacy in so many elements of Cuban society, neither the government nor the people have the resources to make necessary reparations. To this end, one participant in the mission described the capital as a “tale of two cities.” Havana’s people are trapped living in denigrated housing with exterior beauty, driving long-antiquated vehicles with touristy appeal, and struggling to exist in a modern world under governance that actively thwarts innovation and progress. Havana has an underlying glamour leftover from the pre-Castro and pre-Batista era; however, it is a former second-world state not far from third-world poverty. Read the rest of this entry “
I’m way overdue for a post, and unfortunately summertime business is limiting my time, but I wanted to give a quick rundown of a view different things.
1) Morsi’s election in Egypt
2) Tomorrow’s NY-08 Primary
3) A few interesting Senate races
See my comments after the jump.
Posts have been few and far between the past couple weeks here, which is typical for us during final exam periods. Don’t worry though, we’ll be back strong as exams and the school year wind down, and the summer winds up.
That said, I wanted to take a (very quick) second to touch on tonight’s Indiana Republican primary. In a major blow to moderates, pragmatics, and Republicans considering working closely with President Obama, Sen. Richard Lugar likely will be defeated tonight. I hope to go into why Sen. Lugar has been by and large one of the most competent Senators over his thirty-five years in the U.S. Senate in further depth after finals are over. But, if all goes as expected (turnout is reportedly low, which isn’t good for Lugar), Sen. Lugar will receive the “Joe Lieberman treatment” from Indiana’s Republicans tonight, and Indiana Treasury Secretary Richard Mourdock will receive his state’s GOP Senate nomination.
Nonetheless, Hoosiers (who typically elect some of the best office holders in the country – ex: Brad Ellsworth, Evan Bayh, Mitch Daniels, and a slew of prominent Blue Dogs) have an excellent Senate candidate in Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly (IN-2) this November. If Lugar isn’t going to be a member of the next Senate, I certainly hope that Congressman Donnelly will be.
For extended coverage, check out live blogging via our friends at PolicyMic here.