Posted by David

I decided I’m going to make some Election Night predictions now, so that I can take a few guesses before the excitement of the last week. I reserve the right to change any of these predictions, but I’ll clearly note any changes I make. My predictions are made in pretty much the same way Nate Silver does it over at “538,” with the primary difference being that he uses algorithmic analyses and I take guesses based on some polling I’ve seen online…

Arizona goes to Flake. However, I think not sending Carmona to the Senate is a big loss for the country and a big vote in favor of partisan gridlock in Congress.

Connecticut goes to Murphy, for whom I reluctantly am likely going to vote because I can’t pull the lever (…or send in the absentee ballot) for McMahon.

Florida goes to Nelson.

Indiana is going to be close. I’m going to give it to Joe Donnelly because I think Hoosiers have a tendency to put the right person in office (See: Bayh, Evan; Daniels, Mitch. Outliers: Ellsworth, Brad in 2010 and Lugar, Richard in the 2012 GOP primary.), and because Richard Mourdock is another Tea Party conservative who we don’t need in DC.

Maine is going to Angus King, who is going to take DC by storm. With Joe Lieberman and Olympia Snowe leaving the Senate, Mr. King is going to be an essential aisle-crosser in the next Congress.

Massachusetts goes to Warren. If I were a voter in MA, I would pull the lever for Brown. Warren is a solid liberal candidate, and she might be the next Liberal Lion(ess) of the Senate; however, Brown is the guy who will work across the aisle and get things done for his constituents and country. Moreover, his work on gun control is very impressive for a member of the Senate Republican Caucus.

Michigan and Minnesota are keeping two great Senators in Stabenow and Klobuchar, respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Amy Klobuchar take on some leadership roles in the next few years.

Montana will hang on to Jon Tester, and rightfully so.

Nevada seems to be trending toward keeping Heller, so I’m predicting he takes it for now; however, I’m really hoping Shelley Berkley pulls this one out. She’s a stellar candidate.

New York reelects Gillibrand by the cycle’s biggest margins, as she cruises into her first full term. She has to be among the 2016 VP chatter, if she doesn’t consider running for President herself.

North Dakota seems like it will go to Berg, despite Heidi Heitkamp being a really, really impressive candidate. Hopefully she has a ninth inning comeback.

Ohio keeps Brown, a much stronger candidate than Josh Mandel.

Virginia goes to Kaine, who I don’t think will be the next Mark Warner, but is a better pick than the very conservative George Allen.

Wisconsin has a not-so-great selection between a very conservative Tommy Thompson and a very liberal Tammy Baldwin. I think Baldwin is going to pull this one out, but I’m not going to be thrilled either way. I think the good people of Wisconsin should write in, or maybe lobby to bring back Russ Feingold or keep Herb Kohl.

I’m not going to go into House races, but I’m pulling for Patrick Murphy over Allen West to take back Ron Klein’s seat in FL-18 (formerly FL-22). I also should add that President Obama will be reelected by wide margins over Governor Romney. My guess is the disparity will be to the tune of seventy electoral votes.

Update 11/5: Maybe it’s preelection jitters, but I’m a little less confident in Obama’s margin of victory. I still think Nate Silver is right that there is an 80%+ chance Obama locks in a victory, and I’d guess a 50%+ chance the margin is very wide. That said, anything’s always possible.

Posted in David Election 2012: The Presidential Pregame Politics
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