Sep
23
Phil’s Electoral Map 23/09/2012
Since our last map, President Obama has made gains across the board. While his momentum has slowed, the Romney campaign is still in real difficulty in holding onto key states. The question remains whether or not the Governor can afford to wait until the first debate to change the dynamic in the race.
3 States Explained
1. Michigan - With another poll giving the President a 9 point lead or more, this state seems to have completely moved beyond Mitt Romney. The high numbers for Obama here moves it from ‘Likely’ to ‘Safe’.
2. Nevada – Nevada has a lot of attributes that make it fertile ground for Romney, not least that it is part of the so-called ‘Mormon corridor’ out West that provides him a strong electoral base. That said, recent polls have swung towards the President, though still well within the margin of error. Obama has a real chance here to go after a state that did seem to be trending Romney.
3. New Hampshire – Previously described as a state that would go with the winner, New Hampshire is now reflecting that, moving from ‘Leans Obama’ to ‘Likely Obama’. The reality is after a long considered look at Governor Romney, the Granite state seems to be siding with the President by a significant margin.
3 States to Watch
1. Florida – Romney has now had a 1 point lead for along time. While of course within the margin of error, when the polls seem to be showing the same thing week in, week out, it seems quite likely that it reflects opinion. Romney making progress in Florida could really change things around in this election, while Obama taking a lead would surely end this race as a contest.
2. North Carolina – Obama has come back here, though not enough so far to make it competitive. Romney has not been able to convert this from a ‘Likely’ to a ‘Safe’ yet, and needs to nip the Obama comeback in the bud.
3. Wisconsin - It seems inevitable that this state will follow neighbour Michigan and move into ‘Safe Obama’ territory, it is only a question of when. The reality is that Paul Ryan is not a big enough name to carry his own state, further bringing into question why he was ever given the nod.
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